Predicting Spruce Taiga Distribution in Northeast Asia Using Species Distribution Models: Glacial Refugia, Mid-Holocene Expansion and Future Predictions for Global Warming

Spruce taiga forests in Northeast Asia are of great economic and conservation importance. Continued climate warming may cause profound changes their distribution. We use prognostic retrospective species distribution models based on the Random Forest machine learning method to estimate potential range change dominant conifer Jezo spruce (Picea jezoensis (Siebold & Zucc.) Carrière) for year 2070 scenarios past epochs–the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (~21,000 years before present) mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum (MHO) (~7000 using MIROC-ESM CCSM4 models. The current suitable climatic conditions P. estimated be 500,000 km2. Both show similar trends future ranges but provide different quantitative areal estimates. During LGM, main part was located much further south than today at 35–45° N. Projected will a greater distributional has occurred since MHO. Overlapping times that Changbai Mountains, central parts Japanese Alps, Hokkaido, Sikhote-Alin Mountains remain refugia until 2070. establishment artificial forest stands intraspecific taxa climate-acceptable regions important preservation genetic diversity.